Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

EB 0xebe5…993f sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$97 (+77%) realized +$66 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip

Net edge+102%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+110.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+132.3%	+110.2%	50%	50%	+234.4%
≤30d	2	+132.3%	+110.2%	50%	50%	+234.4%
≤90d	2	+132.3%	+110.2%	50%	50%	+234.4%
all	2	+132.3%	+110.2%	50%	50%	+234.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+110.2%	50%	+234.4%
10%	+90.1%	50%	+202.4%
15%	+71.7%	50%	+173.2%
20%	+54.9%	50%	+146.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +270% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +132% · $-wt +270% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$5 · ×14.19 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.19 per $1 lost it wins $14.19

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$120

Realized+$66

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	32¢	$88	$120	+$31 (+35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$19	+$71	+365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 18	$15	−$5	-32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$90	1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$90	1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$19	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$11	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.75 · official $119.75 (match) · 7 history records