Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebed…3528 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$253 (+4%) realized +$260 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$653
7 days+$414
14 days+$235
30 days+$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$204
sports 36% +$81
crypto 13% −$146
world 0% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 47% -1.3%
≤30d 42 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 45% -5.7%
≤90d 42 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 45% -5.7%
all 42 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 45% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 45% -5.7%
10% -30.3% 43% -14.7%
15% -37.0% 38% -22.9%
20% -43.2% 29% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$59 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$948
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage10d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $655 $651 −$4 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $908 +$396 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $72 −$71 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $152 −$150 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $20 +$89 +436%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $903 +$107 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $91 +$88 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $491 +$224 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 −$53 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$98 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $472 +$280 +59%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $499 −$27 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $246 −$242 -98%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $252 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$51 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$59 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $156 3m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 8m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 9m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $504 9m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 68¢ $72 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 15h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 18h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $707 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,010 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $180 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $91 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $903 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $242 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $248 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 46h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $53 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $250 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 47¢ $51 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 54¢ $101 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $752 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $472 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 61¢ $472 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $499 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.65 · official $947.65 (match) · 82 history records