Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xebf0…e275 crypto 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,323 (+3%) realized +$24,245 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%93W / 4L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$7,280per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,620
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 64 +0.8% -8.8% 95% 0% -8.5%
all 97 +2.3% -7.5% 96% 1% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 1% -8.3%
10% -16.3% 1% -17.1%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 1% -25.1%
20% -31.8% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$8,582) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$46 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×52.74 per $1 lost it wins $52.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$10,266
Realized+$24,245
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses93 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$7,280
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $10,179 $10,257 +$78 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,449 +$13 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,149 +$19 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $41,653 +$567 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $173 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $32,126 +$598 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $18,621 +$170 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $7,285 +$82 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2,801 +$23 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10,762 +$74 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $7,400 +$50 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $14,359 +$238 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 07 $2,964 +$29 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $9,972 +$81 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $1,266 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $23,376 +$300 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $44,694 +$475 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $4,387 +$41 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $450 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24? May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $1,988 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $52,832 +$621 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 25 $27,294 −$135 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 18 $23,698 +$169 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $19,039 +$207 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $11,094 +$143 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 18 $525 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 11-17? May 18 $2,003 +$15 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 11 $315 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $1,612 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 27 $4,469 +$41 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $203 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $11,016 +$64 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $11,566 +$114 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 April 13-19? Apr 20 $1,782 −$9 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $5,438 +$67 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 6-12? Apr 13 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $8,582 +$47 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 6-12? Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $12,602 +$147 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $26,651 +$282 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $180 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $299 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $299 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $23 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $7 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $299 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $299 1m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $180 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $120 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $180 26m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $30 34m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $30 34m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $0 34m
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $194 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $267 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $13 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $89 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? SELL No 99¢ $178 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,265.88 · official $10,265.88 (match) · 3500 history records