Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebf0…2330 weather 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,181 (+13%) realized +$1,159 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%280W / 372L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day141.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$137
14 days+$738
30 days+$807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$830
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 37% -4.9%
≤30d 652 +18.1% +6.9% 43% 38% -1.5%
≤90d 652 +18.1% +6.9% 43% 38% -1.5%
all 652 +18.1% +6.9% 43% 38% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 38% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 31% -10.9%
15% -12.7% 26% -19.5%
20% -21.3% 21% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$1,159
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses280 / 372
Open positions14
Markets (closed)652 / 666
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day141.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 57¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 52¢ $15 $21 +$5 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 34¢ $4 $11 +$6 (+146%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $12 $6 −$7 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+90%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 +$19 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$13 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$17 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 −$10 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 −$15 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 7m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $9 19m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.32 · official $127.20 (match) · 3500 history records