Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebf1…3f2c
sports · 49 markets active 16h ago
3.0score
+$649 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$853 · open −$150
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$508
Realized+$853
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses3 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
Avg bet$304
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 5 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$4,801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $458 $383 −$75 (-16%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $40 $66 +$26 (+66%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $86 $30 −$56 (-65%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $23 $3 −$20 (-85%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Athletics 0¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? No 2¢ 0¢ $1,173 $0 −$1,173 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $525 $0 −$525 (-100%)
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,028 $0 −$1,028 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2,460 $0 −$2,460 (-100%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $386 −$123 -32%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 25 $1,086 −$1,028 -95%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $1 $0 -31%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 20 $3 −$1 -48%
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 20 $8 −$4 -52%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 20 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 20 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 20 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 17 $1,243 −$1,173 -94%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 16 $2,593 −$2,460 -95%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 16 $304 −$284 -93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $75 +$280 +374%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $1,038 −$1,015 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $112 −$110 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 28 $366 −$361 -99%
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will V.J. Edgecombe win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 23 $82 −$82 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $865 −$89 -10%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $14 −$14 -95%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $1,448 −$748 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $564 −$525 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $108 −$101 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $72 −$67 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $91 −$84 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 08 $147 −$137 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $100 −$96 -96%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 08 $200 −$194 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $543 +$8,848 +1630%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Mar 30 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 08 $2,171 +$753 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$4,974
economics 34% −$1,047
world 20% +$7,900
crypto 7% −$1,019
other 1% −$110
culture 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $2 15h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $7 41h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $174 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $166 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $87 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $96 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $229 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $44 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $327 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $25 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $30 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $54 4d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 21d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $86 21d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $143 21d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 23d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 23d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 23d
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 23d
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 23d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 23d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV SELL Yes 45¢ $9 23d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? SELL Yes 59¢ $8 23d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 23d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 23d
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 23d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.0% -38.4% 0% 0% -38.4%
≤30d 13 -20.0% -27.6% 8% 8% -89.1%
≤90d 43 -35.6% -41.7% 5% 5% -2.0%
all 44 -34.0% -40.3% 7% 7% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 7% +2.6%
10% -46.0% 7% -7.3%
15% -51.2% 5% -16.2%
20% -56.0% 5% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.61 · official $507.61 (match) · 200 history records