Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebf1…ad52
other · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage470d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 25¢ 23¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-8%)
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $154 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $59 +$3 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $165 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $91 +$5 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $110 +$8 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $81 −$4 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $323 −$2 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $232 −$16 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $955 −$8 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $953 +$4 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $68 +$2 +3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $950 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $13 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $2 +$1 +48%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 07 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$15
world 33% −$3
politics 10% +$8
crypto 1% −$5
sports 1% +$15
culture 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $43 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $154 41h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $154 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $62 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $59 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $167 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $165 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $76 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $76 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $62 46d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 46d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 46d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 89¢ $104 47d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 94¢ $95 48d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 89¢ $91 49d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 53d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $57 53d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 53d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 54d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $55 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 0% -9.7%
all 67 -2.0% -11.4% 46% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.67 · official $39.56 · 189 history records