Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xebf5…b1d0 sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,379 (-12%) realized −$2,366 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%136W / 83L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day89.6pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,159
other 2% −$73
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +32.6% +20.0% 69% 65% +16.6%
≤30d 179 +19.4% +8.1% 60% 54% -14.4%
≤90d 219 +22.9% +11.2% 62% 56% -4.5%
all 219 +22.9% +11.2% 62% 56% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.2% 56% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 48% -13.6%
15% -9.2% 44% -22.0%
20% -18.1% 39% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$76 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$2,366
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses136 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions8
Markets (closed)219 / 227
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day89.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? No 95¢ 94¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? No 95¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? No 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 3¢ $12 $1 −$12 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $192 +$109 +57%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $366 −$18 -5%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $23 +$43 +188%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $27 +$30 +114%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $52 −$48 -92%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $50 +$58 +116%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$3 -16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 +$7 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $94 +$15 +16%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $198 +$140 +71%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $286 +$147 +51%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $22 +$19 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$72 +142%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $33 +$32 +97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $29 +$8 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $406 +$222 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $34 +$37 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 +$23 +124%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$20 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 +$63 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$19 +99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $49 +$8 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $45 +$42 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$7 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $36 +$38 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 45m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $4 47m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 48m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 49m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $4 51m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 55m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $20 59m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 90¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.88 · official $219.22 (match) · 3500 history records