Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebf6…eca4 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,703 (-11%) realized −$1,703 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,949per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$1,336
other 44% −$13
sports 4% −$600
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 6 -53.5% -57.9% 0% 0% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.9% 0% -26.1%
10% -61.9% 0% -33.2%
15% -65.6% 0% -39.6%
20% -69.0% 0% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$333 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$2,456
Realized−$1,703
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,949
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,400 $1,388 −$12 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,055 $1,068 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $880 −$14 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 26 Jan 26 $4,916 −$1,157 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26 Jan 25 $800 −$140 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 26 Jan 25 $2,302 −$40 -2%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $600 −$600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $820 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $851 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $512 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $227 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,541 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,917 32d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $255 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 48d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $157 48d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 53d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $300 75d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $454 75d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $300 75d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 75d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $515 75d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes $50 127d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $200 130d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $80 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 26 SELL Yes 22¢ $87 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 26 BUY Yes 52¢ $215 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 26 SELL Yes 33¢ $545 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 26 BUY Yes 40¢ $661 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26 SELL Yes 23¢ $660 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 26 BUY Yes 27¢ $200 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,455.81 · official $2,455.81 (match) · 203 history records