Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebf6…857e
crypto · 575 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$251 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$253 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses420 / 153
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)573 / 575
History coverage231d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 573 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$78
14 days+$55
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Up 71¢ 67¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? No 85¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 18? Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 22? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$13 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$11 +59%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $137 −$6 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$13 +36%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$15 +21%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$4 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $85 −$85 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$35 -86%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $89 −$52 -58%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$10 +92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $89 +$11 +13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? Jun 08 $136 +$14 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 5? Jun 05 $41 +$9 +21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? Jun 05 $60 +$10 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$6 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $72 +$6 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 04 $167 +$13 +8%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $112 −$8 -7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $97 +$13 +13%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $31 +$5 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 3? Jun 03 $63 +$18 +29%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $56 +$14 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $90 +$5 +5%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +24%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $55 +$25 +45%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $157 +$8 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 29? May 29 $87 +$13 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $36 +$4 +12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29? May 29 $96 +$4 +4%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $38 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $12 −$7 -61%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $147 +$3 +2%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $34 +$16 +47%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28? May 28 $26 +$10 +39%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $48 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $52 +$6 +12%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $94 +$13 +14%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $40 −$34 -85%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $87 +$13 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 22? May 22 $45 −$38 -84%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22? May 22 $59 +$11 +19%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $6 −$2 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $32 +$5 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $280 −$179 -64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $112 −$2 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 20? May 20 $94 +$6 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $25 +$9 +37%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 20? May 20 $42 +$10 +24%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $16 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 45% +$196
other 19% +$254
tech 17% −$188
crypto 17% −$34
sports 1% +$41
world 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $23 4m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 69¢ $7 21m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 74¢ $15 25m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 69¢ $14 26m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 24h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 24h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? SELL No 53¢ $6 26h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? SELL No 53¢ $15 26h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? SELL No 53¢ $5 27h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $43 29h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 83¢ $67 2d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 79¢ $4 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 89¢ $29 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? BUY No 85¢ $85 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 10¢ $5 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 67¢ $3 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 66¢ $37 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 55¢ $8 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 39¢ $2 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 8? BUY Yes 90¢ $136 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? SELL No 99¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.8% -6.0% 69% 69% -18.1%
≤30d 73 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 48% -8.7%
≤90d 237 -25.7% -32.8% 51% 30% -8.7%
all 573 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 37% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 37% -8.1%
10% -22.4% 14% -16.9%
15% -29.9% 4% -25.0%
20% -36.8% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.09 · official $56.09 (match) · 2003 history records