Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebf8…ba88 other 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$102 (+0%) realized +$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 58L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 17% −$28
politics 8% −$7
sports 4% +$148
crypto 2% +$2
culture 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.7% -4.4% 20% 20% -8.4%
≤30d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 21% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 62 -6.7% -15.6% 23% 16% -10.8%
all 78 -2.0% -11.3% 26% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 15% -9.1%
10% -19.8% 15% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 13% -25.7%
20% -34.7% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage612d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 05 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 12 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $376 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $184 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the Apr 23 $197 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $13 +$9 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $18 +$4 +24%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 +$8 +105%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 27m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 25h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 26h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 29h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $26 40h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $121 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $30 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 24d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $30 32d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $30 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.52 · official $175.52 (match) · 281 history records