Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebfb…9139 other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$46
sports 23% −$22
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$3
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage135d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $588 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $378 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $364 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $476 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $451 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $380 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $298 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $160 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $428 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $348 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $215 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $421 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 2h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 7h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 8h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 11h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 14h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 17h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 19h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 20h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 22h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 26h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $17 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $17 36h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 38h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 39h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 43h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1378 history records