Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebfd…39b9 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2
world 31% +$33
politics 17% $0
crypto 6% −$2
weather 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 55% 9% -8.1%
≤90d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 55% 9% -8.1%
all 30 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 7% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 7% -5.5%
10% -18.4% 3% -14.6%
15% -26.3% 3% -22.8%
20% -33.5% 3% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.65 per $1 lost it wins $9.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage478d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $67 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $8 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? Apr 09 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $29 $0 -1%
Solana above $130 on March 21? Mar 22 $37 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Mar 20 $18 +$27 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $8 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $29 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $3 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $29 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $32 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $35 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $35 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 57¢ $32 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $31 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 97¢ $31 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $23 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records