Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EC 0xec05…4d43 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$851 (-15%) realized −$851 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,018
7 days−$1,018
14 days−$1,641
30 days−$1,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,641
sports 8% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 48% -30.3%
≤30d 31 -12.4% -20.8% 45% 45% -29.8%
≤90d 31 -12.4% -20.8% 45% 45% -29.8%
all 31 -12.4% -20.8% 45% 45% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -29.8%
10% -28.3% 45% -36.5%
15% -35.3% 45% -42.7%
20% -41.6% 45% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$202 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage24d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $151 +$139 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $228 +$203 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $249 +$221 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $249 +$270 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $537 −$537 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $145 +$127 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $115 +$128 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$134 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $96 +$94 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $97 +$86 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$79 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $133 +$123 +92%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $480 +$342 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $290 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $238 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $260 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $175 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $228 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $249 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $270 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $249 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $173 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $143 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $268 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $269 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $199 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $140 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $145 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $115 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $105 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $96 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $97 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $99 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $250 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $248 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records