Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec05…d9f2 weather 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$4
politics 28% $0
culture 14% $0
world 14% $0
weather 0% $0
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 21 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$806) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage87d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 21? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 20 Mar 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $812 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $837 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 20 $816 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $806 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 1AM ET Mar 20 $3 $0 +7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $800 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $828 $0 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $828 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$380 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,080 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 53d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $812 86d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $812 86d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $834 86d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 86d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $817 86d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $211 86d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $604 86d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $457 86d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $359 86d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $21 86d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $555 86d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $229 86d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $458 86d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $347 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.42 · official $7.42 (match) · 60 history records