trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 62% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 21 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 62% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 76¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-22%) |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 68¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-31%) |
| Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,080 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 97¢ | 73¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 74¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-24%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 15? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 21? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on April 21? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on April 21? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 20 | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 20 | $812 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $837 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Mar 20 | $816 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $806 | $0 | +0% |
| Solana Up or Down - March 20, 1AM ET | Mar 20 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 20 | $800 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $828 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $828 | −$2 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |