Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec09…4c2f sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$305 (-11%) realized −$268 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$99
other 26% −$104
politics 6% −$149
tech 2% −$49
world 1% −$30
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -32.2% -38.6% 36% 36% -12.4%
≤30d 25 -32.2% -38.6% 36% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 25 -32.2% -38.6% 36% 36% -12.4%
all 48 -49.5% -54.3% 27% 27% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 27% -22.9%
10% -58.7% 25% -30.3%
15% -62.7% 21% -37.1%
20% -66.3% 17% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$33 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage225d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 22¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$15 -50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 +$38 +137%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$78 +110%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $131 +$57 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $81 −$79 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $91 +$21 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$18 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$20 -49%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$58 +113%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $91 −$10 -11%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Mar 01 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $20 $0 -0%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Feb 05 $198 −$198 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 05 $80 −$20 -24%
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Commun Jan 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Nov 12 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $347 +$204 +59%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Nov 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Zcash hit $500 by December 31? Nov 06 $500 +$133 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $15 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $61 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $65 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 20¢ $10 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $149 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $10 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $17 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $10 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $24 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $189 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $81 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $15 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 44¢ $20 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 54¢ $30 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 59¢ $30 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 10¢ $10 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 59¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $30 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.63 · official $47.61 (match) · 209 history records