Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec0a…30d6 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,113 (-11%) realized −$1,106 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$419
sports 25% −$1,673
crypto 12% +$855
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -58.7% -62.6% 25% 21% -20.5%
≤30d 28 -58.7% -62.6% 25% 21% -20.5%
≤90d 28 -58.7% -62.6% 25% 21% -20.5%
all 28 -58.7% -62.6% 25% 21% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.6% 21% -20.5%
10% -66.2% 21% -28.1%
15% -69.5% 21% -35.1%
20% -72.5% 11% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$710) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -57% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$166 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$1,106
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $64 $58 −$7 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $139 −$73 -53%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $143 +$85 +60%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $57 −$56 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $731 −$731 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $538 +$192 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $370 +$169 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $710 −$540 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,784 −$1,057 -59%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,239 +$855 +69%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $376 −$302 -80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,832 +$157 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $759 +$425 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $729 +$364 +50%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $264 −$208 -79%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $66 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $66 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $50 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $88 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $10 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $10 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $8 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $21 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $21 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $21 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $8 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $143 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $57 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $731 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $731 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $538 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $370 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $170 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $710 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $727 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,784 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,094 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $74 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $74 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $376 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.54 · official $57.54 (match) · 58 history records