Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EC 0xec0e…1e4e other 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 677d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$732 (+3%) realized +$654 · open +$78
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate78%141W / 40L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$68
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$337
world 26% +$50
crypto 9% +$143
finance 9% +$80
sports 6% −$61
tech 5% −$1
politics 5% +$44
economics 1% +$4
weather 0% $0
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 39 +12.4% +1.7% 82% 15% -5.9%
≤90d 78 +8.0% -2.3% 85% 23% -5.2%
all 181 +3.0% -6.8% 78% 19% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 19% -7.5%
10% -15.7% 10% -16.3%
15% -23.9% 6% -24.4%
20% -31.4% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

677d coverage
Net worth$1,647
Realized+$654
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses141 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions19
Markets (closed)181 / 200
History coverage677d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $199 $222 +$23 (+12%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 66¢ 85¢ $131 $170 +$39 (+29%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $101 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will STRC market cap hit $16B by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 76¢ $48 $76 +$28 (+57%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 78¢ 100¢ $51 $65 +$14 (+28%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 15¢ $30 $10 −$20 (-68%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $329 +$1 +0%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $422 +$67 +16%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $299 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $199 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $162 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $352 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $255 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$10 -12%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 11 $70 +$57 +82%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 11 $403 +$5 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 +$7 +17%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 07 $0 +$1 +147%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 6? Jun 06 $118 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $237 −$3 -2%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $90 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $198 −$68 -34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $37 +$4 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$10 +10%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $198 +$19 +10%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $201 +$56 +28%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 31 $73 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $72 +$13 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026? May 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $479 +$97 +20%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $60 +$10 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 10 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 09 $26 −$15 -58%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $13 +$7 +59%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 08 $51 −$13 -26%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? May 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1? May 07 $165 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 05 $142 −$47 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $50 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 89¢ $7 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 88¢ $7 28h
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $22 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,646.80 · official $1,646.83 (match) · 2779 history records