Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec12…fd9d other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized −$8 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$142
sports 14% +$84
world 3% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 43% -18.2%
≤30d 37 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 43% -18.2%
≤90d 37 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 43% -18.2%
all 37 +14.5% +3.6% 46% 43% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 43% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 41% -26.1%
15% -15.4% 27% -33.2%
20% -23.7% 27% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions14
Markets (closed)37 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $20 $69 +$49 (+245%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$26 +120%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$8 -8%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $27 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $27 +$5 +19%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$7 -31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$36 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -89%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 +$38 +360%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$9 -45%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$11 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $45 +$50 +110%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $16 +$12 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$46 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$6 +28%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +452%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$43 -41%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$42 -79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$20 +29%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$82 +155%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$94 +177%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 −$57 -54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$47 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 9m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 50m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $53 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $96 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 23¢ $32 13h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.24 · official $541.26 (match) · 92 history records