Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EC 0xec13…a217 world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-5%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$28
sports 9% −$86
other 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -19.6% -27.3% 22% 11% -13.9%
≤90d 9 -19.6% -27.3% 22% 11% -13.9%
all 9 -19.6% -27.3% 22% 11% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 11% -13.9%
10% -34.3% 11% -22.1%
15% -40.6% 11% -29.6%
20% -46.4% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $317 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $315 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $316 $0 +0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $317 −$1 -0%
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 10 $57 +$29 +50%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 09 $61 −$15 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $317 43m
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $317 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $316 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $230 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA SELL Yes 60¢ $48 2h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY Yes 60¢ $49 8h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $316 21h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $316 22h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 22h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $308 22h
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $317 26h
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) BUY Nemiga Gaming $26 9d
Game Handicap: Nemiga (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) BUY Nemiga Gaming $25 9d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 9d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $42 9d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 9d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY Yes $57 9d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Moldova $17 10d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) BUY Moldova $17 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL Yes $46 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes $30 10d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records