Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec14…25d6 crypto 156 markets active 13h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-12%) realized −$200 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%48W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$32
14 days−$81
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$198
crypto 27% −$49
other 20% +$25
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -59.8% -63.6% 8% 8% -31.3%
≤30d 31 -52.7% -57.2% 19% 19% -42.8%
≤90d 137 -23.6% -30.8% 29% 28% -17.6%
all 151 -20.7% -28.2% 32% 30% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 30% -21.4%
10% -35.1% 26% -28.9%
15% -41.4% 23% -35.8%
20% -47.1% 22% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses48 / 103
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)151 / 156
History coverage578d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$52 +169%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 24 $5 +$7 +134%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Pedro Martinez May 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $4 +$9 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 21 $42 +$15 +36%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 18 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 15 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 12 $3 +$4 +116%
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kuan-Yi Lee May 12 $5 −$4 -73%
Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona May 12 $4 −$4 -86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 13h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 36h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 36h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on BUY 2¢ $1 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 22¢ $9 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $82 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.19 · official $49.19 (match) · 277 history records