Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xec14…7faf sports 1005 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$3,899 (+5%) realized +$3,289 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%462W / 538L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$616est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$51
14 days−$754
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$4,236
other 4% −$650
crypto 0% −$138
world 0% −$62
politics 0% −$50
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +4.4% -5.6% 49% 49% -8.2%
≤30d 283 -2.0% -11.4% 46% 46% -11.3%
≤90d 635 +3.0% -6.8% 46% 46% -9.4%
all 1000 +4.3% -5.7% 46% 46% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 46% -5.6%
10% -14.7% 46% -14.6%
15% -22.9% 45% -22.9%
20% -30.5% 45% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$74 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$3,289
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses462 / 538
Est. fees paid−$616
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1000 / 1005
History coverage230d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1000 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+58%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 +$56 +110%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $51 +$65 +128%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 +$50 +99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $51 +$74 +146%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$45 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $51 +$47 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$85 +276%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$98 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $112 +$55 +49%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $51 −$3 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$63 +123%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $51 +$58 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $51 +$53 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $51 +$43 +84%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $51 +$44 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $102 50m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 98¢ $106 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $51 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $109 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $116 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 10¢ $51 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $51 4h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $51 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 5h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $51 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $51 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $51 6h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $51 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $51 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $101 19h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $109 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $8 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 39¢ $51 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $102 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $102 24h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $51 24h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $51 24h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $96 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $51 27h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $51 27h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $51 29h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $51 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.80 · official $227.80 · 2542 history records