Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec18…9ae6 crypto 567 markets active 7h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-2%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%467W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -0.9% -10.4% 95% 1% -10.4%
≤30d 248 -13.3% -21.5% 82% 1% -11.7%
≤90d 567 -8.9% -17.6% 82% 20% -12.9%
all 567 -8.9% -17.6% 82% 20% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 20% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 5% -21.2%
15% -32.7% 1% -28.8%
20% -39.3% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses467 / 100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)567 / 567
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 567 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 3500 history records