Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xec18…0720 world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,140 (-4%) realized −$1,148 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate69%36W / 16L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$23
14 days−$124
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1,258
other 16% −$1,558
finance 12% +$190
sports 7% −$1,504
tech 6% +$141
crypto 5% +$87
economics 3% +$16
politics 3% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 70% 10% -10.2%
≤90d 52 -5.8% -14.7% 69% 25% -14.3%
all 52 -5.8% -14.7% 69% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 25% -14.3%
10% -22.9% 13% -22.5%
15% -30.3% 8% -30.0%
20% -37.2% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$780) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$219 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$1,231
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses36 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage131d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 83¢ 99¢ $442 $528 +$86 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $466 $466 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 85¢ 59¢ $254 $177 −$78 (-31%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 22 $360 +$35 +10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 22 $13 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 16 $472 −$12 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $468 +$24 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $65 +$34 +52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $208 +$10 +5%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 09 $961 +$88 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 25 $1,026 +$94 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 20 $329 +$85 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 08 $791 −$780 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 08 $1,010 −$724 -72%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $896 −$785 -88%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 01 $1,080 +$17 +2%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,365 −$823 -60%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $895 +$54 +6%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $503 +$91 +18%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $366 +$27 +7%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Apr 30 $257 −$28 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? Apr 30 $470 −$15 -3%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Apr 30 $10 −$6 -62%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 29 $780 +$45 +6%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $320 +$167 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $210 +$15 +7%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $1,075 +$172 +16%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 22 $671 +$69 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,958 +$532 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $507 +$87 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $882 +$75 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 18 $966 +$58 +6%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? Apr 17 $128 +$52 +41%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $705 +$61 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 15 $500 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $1,496 −$4 -0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 14 $52 +$8 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 14 $186 +$13 +7%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 10 $486 +$50 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $212 +$188 +88%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $17 +$4 +23%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? BUY No 94¢ $60 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $468 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $198 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $55 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $20 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $49 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $74 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $8 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $24 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $15 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 68¢ $34 17h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 85¢ $13 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 67¢ $33 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 90¢ $360 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 92¢ $366 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $398 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $395 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 86¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $304 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 99¢ $100 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $219 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 95¢ $85 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $10 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $47 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $42 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $113 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $97 10d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $19 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 64¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,230.77 · official $1,228.07 (match) · 346 history records