Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec1a…2668 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,064 (+89%) realized +$3,064 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$3,114
crypto 10% +$73
other 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 40% +9.2%
≤30d 11 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 36% -4.3%
≤90d 11 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 36% -4.3%
all 22 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 45% +74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 45% +74.3%
10% -16.2% 41% +57.6%
15% -24.3% 41% +42.4%
20% -31.7% 32% +28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$17 · ×17.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.96 per $1 lost it wins $17.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$3,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage209d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? No 75¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jan 10 $10 +$1 +15%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Hawks vs. 76ers Jan 10 $10 +$10 +96%
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 Jan 10 $10 +$10 +100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $10 +$24 +245%
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) Jan 10 $2,883 +$3,114 +108%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Heat Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Knicks Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $51 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $23 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 26d
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 26d
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) BUY Pelicans 52¢ $50 168d
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) BUY Pelicans 52¢ $8 168d
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $222 168d
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $1,274 168d
Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $1,329 168d
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 197d
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 197d
Clippers vs. Heat BUY Clippers 31¢ $10 207d
Bucks vs. Wizards BUY Bucks 78¢ $10 207d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Hawks 24¢ $10 207d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Cavaliers 70¢ $10 207d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Celtics 29¢ $10 208d
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers BUY Thunder 87¢ $10 208d
Raptors vs. Knicks BUY Raptors 28¢ $10 208d
Hawks vs. 76ers BUY Hawks 51¢ $10 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.23 · official $50.23 (match) · 40 history records