Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec1b…7083 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$4
other 24% −$2
sports 22% −$3
culture 11% −$2
finance 9% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$962) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage91d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Jun 28 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 28 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 28 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 15 $927 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Apr 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $140 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,035 1h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,015 1h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 2h
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,116 2h
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $794 2h
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $13 2h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $258 2h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 3h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 45d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 45d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $32 45d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $8 45d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $12 45d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 45d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $19 45d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $12 45d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $20 45d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 71d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 71d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 71d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 72d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records