Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xec1e…0d9c other 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$285 (+1%) realized +$275 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate78%59W / 17L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$212
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$245
world 7% +$3
crypto 5% +$10
sports 5% −$33
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +5.7% -4.3% 78% 5% -8.7%
≤30d 76 +5.3% -4.7% 78% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 76 +5.3% -4.7% 78% 7% -8.7%
all 76 +5.3% -4.7% 78% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 7% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 5% -17.5%
15% -22.2% 5% -25.4%
20% -29.8% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 37% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses59 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage9d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? No 99¢ 100¢ $990 $1,000 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $990 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? Jun 27 $514 +$8 +2%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $230 −$28 -12%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1,430 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $328 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $514 +$5 +1%
Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $404 +$3 +1%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $24 −$11 -46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $421 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $367 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $228 +$2 +1%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $871 +$7 +1%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $825 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $356 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $495 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $152 −$19 -12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Netherlands? Jun 25 $690 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $797 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $431 +$3 +1%
Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger: Olympic Dcheira O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $21 $0 +1%
Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger: Olympic Dcheira O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $43 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $61 −$5 -7%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $289 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $941 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $434 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $19 −$2 -10%
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $89 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $859 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $1,668 +$101 +6%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $842 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $94 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $79 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $213 +$2 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $644 −$14 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 +$5 +59%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1,576 +$12 +1%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $852 +$6 +1%
América FC vs. Criciúma EC: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $56 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $66 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $842 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $141 5m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $192 7m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $149 7m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $149 7m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $149 7m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $212 7m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? SELL No 100¢ $993 22m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? SELL No 100¢ $5 22m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $15 23m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $495 23m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $294 23m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 99¢ $186 23m
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL No 100¢ $467 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL No 98¢ $2 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 66¢ $80 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 66¢ $122 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 75¢ $170 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 75¢ $40 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 75¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 75¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Belgium? BUY No 98¢ $495 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? SELL No 100¢ $993 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $239 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.50 · official $999.50 (match) · 431 history records