Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xec1e…9153 world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$199 (+35%) realized +$167 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$68
other 19% +$118
politics 18% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +78.1% +61.1% 100% 100% +45.7%
≤90d 4 +75.8% +59.0% 100% 100% +54.1%
all 4 +75.8% +59.0% 100% 100% +54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.0% 100% +54.1%
10% +43.8% 100% +39.4%
15% +29.9% 75% +25.9%
20% +17.2% 75% +13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage80d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 70¢ 66¢ $144 $134 −$10 (-7%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 66¢ $47 $87 +$40 (+85%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $84 $79 −$4 (-5%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No 51¢ 56¢ $64 $71 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 01 $44 +$54 +123%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $97 +$32 +33%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $67 +$64 +96%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $20 +$10 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $48 48m
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $65 12d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $97 15d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $97 15d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $47 17d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 21d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $97 30d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 50¢ $67 32d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $44 54d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 80d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 66¢ $20 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.02 · official $371.57 (match) · 14 history records