Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EC 0xec1e…b552 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 31% −$11
sports 12% −$30
tech 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -1.6% -10.9% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage134d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $374 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $355 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 29 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $372 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $395 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $390 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $406 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $389 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $401 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $331 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 19d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 24d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 25d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $141 25d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $141 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $142 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $142 39d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $152 40d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $152 41d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 41d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 47d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 47d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $203 48d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 49d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 50d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $178 50d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $178 51d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $166 51d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $166 51d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 51d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 52d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 52d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 52d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $194 52d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $194 53d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.97 · official $26.97 (match) · 427 history records