Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

EC 0xec21…abd8 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$54 (+24%) realized +$54 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+32.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+46.3%	+32.4%	71%	57%	+15.4%
≤30d	7	+46.3%	+32.4%	71%	57%	+15.4%
≤90d	7	+46.3%	+32.4%	71%	57%	+15.4%
all	7	+46.3%	+32.4%	71%	57%	+15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.4%	57%	+15.4%
10%	+19.7%	29%	+4.4%
15%	+8.2%	29%	-5.7%
20%	-2.4%	29%	-15.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×16.87 per $1 lost it wins $16.87

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$54

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 24	$38	+$6	+14%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 23	$39	−$2	-5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$2	+$3	+158%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 23	$64	+$11	+18%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$60	+$4	+6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Jun 22	$18	+$42	+233%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia?	BUY No	87¢	$38	1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	SELL No	79¢	$38	1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	BUY No	82¢	$39	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	20h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria?	SELL No	100¢	$75	20h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria?	BUY No	85¢	$27	21h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria?	BUY No	85¢	$37	21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria?	BUY No	94¢	$60	32h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$14	5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records