Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec25…dec6 weather 1587 markets active 9h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,927 (-4%) realized −$2,934 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%1415W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$27
sports 28% +$210
other 17% −$577
world 4% −$44
politics 2% −$94
tech 0% −$13
crypto 0% +$65
finance 0% +$7
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 560 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 11% -9.9%
≤90d 1559 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 13% -10.1%
all 1559 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 13% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 6% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,283
Realized−$2,934
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1415 / 144
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1559 / 1587
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 1559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $84 $83 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $49 $72 +$23 (+47%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) England 95¢ 94¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Czechia 95¢ 94¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 99¢ 98¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 83¢ 80¢ $41 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Panama 94¢ 94¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 96¢ 85¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? No 94¢ 95¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 96¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Cleveland Guardians 84¢ 52¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $89 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$9 +11%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 17 $40 −$28 -71%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$9 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$6 +129%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $141 +$3 +2%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 17 $37 +$8 +21%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $86 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$23 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +14%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $27 +$1 +2%
Spread: Fortaleza EC (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $87 +$5 +6%
Spread: Ceará SC (-1.5) Jun 16 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 +$11 +13%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $88 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$18 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $72 +$2 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $97 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $71 9h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 95¢ $69 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $71 9h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $70 9h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 26¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $21 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $21 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 98¢ $35 9h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $141 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 99¢ $20 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 99¢ $5 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 99¢ $5 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $71 10h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $3 10h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $68 10h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Panama 94¢ $35 10h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $70 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $35 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $36 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $73 10h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $10 10h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $88 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $97 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $0 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $0 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $0 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,282.77 · official $1,282.72 (match) · 3500 history records