Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec28…6fba other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 233L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$40
sports 21% −$18
economics 9% −$4
politics 7% −$7
culture 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage135d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $959 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $692 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $768 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $621 +$1 +0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $309 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $761 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $397 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $433 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $412 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $851 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $328 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $71 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $340 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $326 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $750 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 4h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 5h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 7h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 8h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $67 12h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $67 14h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $67 17h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $67 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $67 24h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $67 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 27h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 29h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 30h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 31h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 36h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 37h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 43h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $67 44h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 45h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 46h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $68 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.22 · official $66.22 (match) · 1411 history records