Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec28…8d7a sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,673 (-23%) realized −$3,502 · open −$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,803
7 days−$4,298
14 days−$3,937
30 days−$3,937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,933
other 2% −$181
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -30.3% -36.9% 30% 29% -35.7%
≤30d 104 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 32% -32.6%
≤90d 104 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 32% -32.6%
all 104 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 32% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.9% 32% -32.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.3% 31% -39.0%
15% -45.2% 30% -44.9%
20% -50.5% 26% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$127 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$3,502
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 70
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 109
History coverage7d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 26¢ $150 $80 −$70 (-47%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Santiago De La Fuente 43¢ 23¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-47%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 54¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $93 −$34 -37%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $40 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $98 −$96 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $93 −$92 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $93 −$91 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $237 −$237 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 16 $252 −$252 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $298 −$298 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $701 −$701 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $203 −$197 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $110 −$107 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $131 +$174 +133%
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Parry Jun 16 $160 −$158 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $251 −$83 -33%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $835 −$193 -23%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $390 −$258 -66%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $151 +$207 +137%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $162 +$181 +112%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs Zarazua Jun 16 $87 −$85 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 16 $202 −$173 -86%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $134 −$133 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 +$17 +15%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $66 +$51 +77%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $88 −$86 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $162 −$160 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $599 +$265 +44%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $605 +$681 +113%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $285 +$351 +123%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $243 +$163 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $218 +$225 +103%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $334 +$397 +119%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Ozan Baris Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $102 +$117 +115%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $144 +$185 +129%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $46 +$54 +118%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 43¢ $12 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 45m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $153 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 16¢ $59 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $86 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 39¢ $27 3h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 47¢ $40 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 40¢ $40 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $30 4h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 38¢ $98 5h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 38¢ $93 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 8¢ $28 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $96 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 45¢ $93 9h
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo BUY Diallo 41¢ $47 27h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 13¢ $46 27h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 11¢ $52 27h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 20¢ $2 27h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 36¢ $203 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 7¢ $110 28h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $305 28h
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Parry BUY Tauson 51¢ $61 28h
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Parry BUY Tauson 54¢ $99 28h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 46¢ $168 28h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 67¢ $251 28h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $251 28h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 42¢ $131 28h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ $134 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.24 · official $82.47 · 226 history records