Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec2d…45a8 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,306 (-0%) realized −$1,307 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,087per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$26
14 days+$3
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$191
other 37% −$1,491
sports 10% +$351
world 4% −$18
economics 3% −$13
culture 2% −$8
crypto 1% +$5
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 +9.2% -1.2% 16% 12% -9.5%
≤90d 136 -4.4% -13.5% 9% 7% -10.1%
all 165 +2.5% -7.3% 16% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 12% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 12% -18.5%
15% -24.2% 12% -26.4%
20% -31.7% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$3,006) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$21 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$1,307
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage126d
Avg bet$2,087
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,779 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,943 −$7 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,098 −$5 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,337 −$5 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $3,980 −$6 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,650 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,611 −$5 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9,003 −$12 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,788 −$9 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,688 −$3 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $80 +$78 +97%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $5,970 −$7 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,288 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $68 +$39 +57%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $4,498 −$7 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,325 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,497 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $56 +$75 +134%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $3,290 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,516 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $34 +$50 +146%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $517 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $849 +$3 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $2,089 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,515 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $2,258 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,982 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $8,825 −$11 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,025 −$4 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,768 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 45m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 17h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 19h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $234 19h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $234 21h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 25h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 27h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 43h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 44h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 44h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 46h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,567 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,569 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,652 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,682 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,684 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,648 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,650 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,645 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,687 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,690 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.27 · official $185.27 (match) · 639 history records