Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec2f…43a2 other 1278 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 258d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,647 (+4%) realized +$3,515 · open +$132
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%1152W / 123L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$2,040
14 days+$3,039
30 days+$3,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$3,682
weather 33% −$124
sports 4% +$54
world 1% +$45
politics 1% −$123
tech 1% +$14
economics 1% +$5
culture 0% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 4% -2.3%
≤30d 1107 +2.5% -7.2% 98% 3% -5.6%
≤90d 1172 +1.6% -8.1% 97% 3% -6.0%
all 1275 -3.8% -13.0% 90% 4% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 4% -6.2%
10% -21.3% 2% -15.2%
15% -28.9% 2% -23.4%
20% -35.9% 1% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$3,515
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1152 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1275 / 1278
History coverage258d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals No 90¢ $0 $135 +$135 (+0%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals No 99¢ 98¢ $132 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Michael Olise: 3+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Keisuke Gotō: 5+ shots Jun 21 $7 $0 +2%
Yuito Suzuki: 5+ shots Jun 21 $34 +$1 +3%
Kento Shiogai: 5+ shots Jun 21 $39 +$2 +4%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots Jun 21 $105 +$10 +10%
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ shots Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots Jun 21 $105 +$10 +10%
Takefusa Kubo: 4+ shots Jun 21 $37 +$1 +2%
Takefusa Kubo: 5+ shots Jun 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Nadiem Amiri: 5+ shots Jun 20 $134 +$3 +2%
Amad Diallo: 5+ shots Jun 20 $169 +$12 +7%
Simon Adingra: 5+ shots Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots Jun 20 $138 +$3 +2%
Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots Jun 20 $30 +$3 +8%
Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots Jun 20 $22 $0 +2%
Memphis Depay: 5+ shots Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Noa Lang: 5+ shots Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Gustaf Nilsson: 5+ shots Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots Jun 20 $23 $0 +2%
Can Uzun: 4+ shots Jun 20 $8 $0 +2%
Isidro Pitta: 5+ shots Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Yunus Akgün: 4+ shots Jun 20 $17 $0 +2%
İrfan Can Kahveci: 4+ shots Jun 20 $18 $0 +2%
Ramón Sosa: 4+ shots Jun 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Álex Arce: 4+ shots Jun 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Rayan: 4+ shots on target Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Danilo Santos: 5+ shots Jun 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Casemiro: 5+ shots Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Casemiro: 3+ shots on target Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Endrick: 4+ shots on target Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Éderson: 4+ shots on target Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Gabriel Martinelli: 4+ shots on target Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots on target Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots Jun 20 $15 $0 +2%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Éderson: 2+ goals Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Endrick: 3+ goals Jun 20 $22 $0 +2%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Igor Thiago: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Casemiro: 2+ goals Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Ross Stewart: 3+ shots Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Chemsdine Talbi: 4+ shots Jun 20 $24 $0 +2%
Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Ayoube Amaimouni: 4+ shots Jun 20 $47 +$1 +2%
Chemsdine Talbi: 5+ shots Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots Jun 20 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $73 1h
Michael Olise: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $69 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 88¢ $132 6h
Amad Diallo: 5+ shots BUY No 90¢ $90 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots BUY No 90¢ $12 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots BUY No 90¢ $33 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY No 90¢ $44 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY No 90¢ $9 2d
Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots BUY No 90¢ $21 2d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Lawrence Shankland: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Lawrence Shankland: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Ross Stewart: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $0 3d
Chemsdine Talbi: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Lawrence Shankland: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Gessime Yassine: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.17 · official $333.17 (match) · 3500 history records