Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec35…3c89 crypto 297 markets active 2d ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,582 (-10%) realized −$1,582 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%123W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,512
sports 11% −$202
other 1% +$62
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 42% -9.0%
≤30d 56 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 39% -14.2%
≤90d 122 -13.1% -21.4% 40% 35% -18.3%
all 297 -4.6% -13.6% 41% 32% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 32% -18.8%
10% -21.9% 27% -26.6%
15% -29.5% 24% -33.7%
20% -36.4% 19% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,582
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses123 / 174
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage552d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$19 +30%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$5 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$19 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$38 +145%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$9 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $245 −$243 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 02 $145 −$40 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 02 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 01 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $60 −$44 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $212 +$156 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 01 $151 +$93 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $109 +$23 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $19 +$4 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $110 +$41 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $152 −$13 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$18 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $150 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $27 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 41h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1076 history records