Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec36…78bb crypto 1230 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-0%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%869W / 361L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$85
14 days+$153
30 days+$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$633
crypto 36% −$209
world 7% −$461
other 5% −$113
weather 1% +$25
tech 1% −$101
politics 0% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 86 +2.4% -7.4% 92% 7% -6.6%
≤90d 1019 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 27% -10.4%
all 1230 +1.4% -8.2% 71% 28% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 28% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 22% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 18% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses869 / 361
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1230 / 1230
History coverage553d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1230 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $188 +$11 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $190 +$8 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii Jun 23 $184 +$5 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $186 +$13 +7%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $196 +$3 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 22 $186 +$14 +8%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer Jun 22 $72 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Dan Added Jun 22 $186 +$13 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Jun 22 $176 +$3 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo Jun 22 $171 +$9 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $177 +$3 +2%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Altmaier/Jebens Jun 11 $108 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $164 +$7 +4%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $177 +$3 +2%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Darya Velikova vs Iva Ivanovic Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
ITF Decatur: Zuzanna Pawlikowska vs Sena Yoon Jun 10 $177 +$3 +2%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $162 +$17 +11%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Danilina/Krunic vs Eikeri/Gleason Jun 10 $204 +$2 +1%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 09 $290 +$10 +4%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $254 +$26 +10%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Oliver Okonkwo Jun 09 $175 +$3 +2%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $176 +$2 +1%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton Jun 08 $140 +$10 +7%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $161 +$1 +1%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Marko Topo Jun 08 $149 +$1 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $146 +$4 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $146 +$4 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $144 +$6 +4%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Liam Draxl Jun 06 $138 +$1 +1%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $137 +$12 +8%
ITF Brasilia: Noelia Zeballos vs Laura Badia Jun 04 $97 −$1 -1%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $149 +$1 +1%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $290 +$6 +2%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $143 $0 -0%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $147 +$3 +2%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 04 $90 +$16 +17%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $87 +$3 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $147 +$3 +2%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Nika Radisic Jun 03 $255 +$7 +3%
Makarska: Leolia Jeanjean vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 03 $146 +$4 +3%
Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Jun 03 $147 +$3 +2%
Centurion 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Giles Hussey Jun 02 $146 +$1 +1%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels Jun 02 $148 −$11 -8%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Abedallah Shelbayh Jun 02 $141 +$9 +7%
Centurion 2: Orel Kimhi vs Philip Henning Jun 02 $141 +$8 +5%
Birmingham: Greet Minnen vs Alina Charaeva Jun 02 $182 +$2 +1%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 02 $147 +$2 +1%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 02 $166 +$6 +4%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $149 +$1 +1%
Prostejov: Andrej Martin vs Vit Kopriva Jun 02 $222 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $200 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 94¢ $188 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 99¢ $137 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 99¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 99¢ $49 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 99¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day SELL Kayla Day 99¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 95¢ $190 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 95¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 95¢ $190 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 92¢ $184 2h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Grigor Dimitrov 100¢ $200 3h
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 93¢ $186 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 99¢ $199 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 98¢ $196 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 93¢ $150 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 93¢ $36 24h
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer SELL Daniel Michalski 100¢ $74 24h
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer BUY Daniel Michalski 98¢ $2 24h
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer BUY Daniel Michalski 98¢ $49 24h
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Gijs Brouwer BUY Daniel Michalski 98¢ $21 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Dan Added SELL Pablo Llamas Ruiz 100¢ $199 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Dan Added BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 93¢ $186 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 100¢ $180 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 98¢ $176 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo SELL Harold Mayot 100¢ $180 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo BUY Harold Mayot 95¢ $171 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre SELL Kimberly Birrell 100¢ $180 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 98¢ $177 3d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Altmaier/Jebens SELL Cabral/Mektic 90¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3130 history records