Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

EC 0xec38…6f47 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$56 (-4%) realized −$17 · open −$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-15.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-0.8%	-10.2%	72%	44%	-18.4%
≤30d	19	-6.0%	-15.0%	68%	42%	-18.9%
≤90d	19	-6.0%	-15.0%	68%	42%	-18.9%
all	19	-6.0%	-15.0%	68%	42%	-18.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.0%	42%	-18.9%
10%	-23.1%	26%	-26.6%
15%	-30.5%	16%	-33.7%
20%	-37.3%	11%	-40.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

31% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -20% → late +6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$52 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$85

Realized−$17

Unrealized−$39

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage21d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	20¢	$72	$82	+$10 (+14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	13¢	1¢	$52	$3	−$49 (-95%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 29	$101	−$101	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 29	$101	+$19	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 29	$103	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 29	$77	+$26	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 29	$38	+$33	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 29	$3	+$3	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 29	$103	−$103	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 29	$101	+$8	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 29	$52	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 29	$50	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 29	$51	+$18	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 29	$51	+$6	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 29	$51	+$5	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 27	$103	−$98	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 27	$208	+$21	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 27	$109	+$12	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 27	$52	+$22	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 08	$8	−$8	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$77	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$38	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$109	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$53	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$52	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	SELL Down	90¢	$52	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$50	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	SELL Up	90¢	$69	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$57	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$56	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$51	2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$53	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$103	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Down	61¢	$116	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$103	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$113	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$6	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.63 · official $84.63 (match) · 50 history records