Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EC 0xec38…ca10 sports 584 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$932 (-2%) realized −$930 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%294W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$594now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$260
14 days−$395
30 days+$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,845
other 7% +$843
politics 0% −$104
world 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.8% -1.6% 69% 69% +7.6%
≤30d 98 +1.1% -8.5% 54% 53% -1.2%
≤90d 530 -6.0% -14.9% 50% 49% -13.2%
all 576 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 50% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 50% -11.5%
10% -21.1% 48% -19.9%
15% -28.8% 44% -27.7%
20% -35.8% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$79 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$594
Realized−$930
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses294 / 282
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions8
Markets (closed)576 / 584
History coverage93d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $104 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 68¢ $77 $74 −$4 (-5%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 60¢ $51 $70 +$19 (+38%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 52¢ $74 $56 −$18 (-24%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $140 +$84 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $50 −$12 -23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $129 +$16 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 +$63 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $95 +$59 +62%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $85 +$30 +35%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$68 +129%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$35 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 +$39 +48%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $97 +$33 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $84 +$27 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $96 +$17 +17%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $89 +$101 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $67 +$76 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $88 −$87 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $60 −$59 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $51 +$72 +140%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $66 +$57 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $59 +$64 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $62 −$62 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $59 −$58 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $62 −$62 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $62 −$62 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $52 −$52 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $74 −$72 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $67 +$57 +85%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $59 +$64 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $55 −$38 -70%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $56 −$55 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $79 −$78 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $58 −$57 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $75 −$74 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $71 −$70 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $43 +$80 +188%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $72 +$51 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $75 +$48 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $73 +$50 +67%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $54 −$53 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $55 −$54 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 29¢ $34 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $35 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $140 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $129 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $87 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $95 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $82 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $145 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $78 5d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $75 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $49 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 74¢ $97 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $82 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $24 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $75 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $67 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $85 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $67 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $88 8d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY PortlandFire 46¢ $5 8d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY PortlandFire 46¢ $84 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $75 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $8 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.40 · official $594.40 (match) · 1445 history records