Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec3c…5dc4 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,499 (-3%) realized −$3,744 · open +$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,182per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$102,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$262
7 days−$262
14 days−$1,816
30 days−$4,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$2,391
crypto 4% −$1,077
world 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -25.5% -32.6% 0% 0% -32.6%
≤30d 10 -37.0% -43.0% 30% 30% -54.0%
≤90d 10 -37.0% -43.0% 30% 30% -54.0%
all 10 -37.0% -43.0% 30% 30% -54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 30% -54.0%
10% -48.5% 30% -58.4%
15% -53.4% 30% -62.4%
20% -58.0% 30% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$516 vs −$823 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$102,955
Realized−$3,744
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7,182
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $47,442 $48,612 +$1,170 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $23,323 $22,860 −$462 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $12,700 $12,365 −$335 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $11,400 $11,345 −$55 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4,000 $3,923 −$77 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3,846 $3,850 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,027 −$262 -26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$26 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $4,962 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,095 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,843 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,129 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $924 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $70 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $13,595 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,535 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $6,142 9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4,825 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4,621 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,057 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,056 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 15h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,886 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,057 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $75 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $14,197 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $15,346 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5,135 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5,134 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,610 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $842 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $765 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $9,964 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102,954.88 · official $102,954.88 (match) · 78 history records