Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EC 0xec3e…a888 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$417 (+8%) realized +$318 · open +$99
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,174
14 days+$1,397
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$374
other 19% +$1,073
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +234.5% +202.6% 67% 67% +139.1%
≤30d 15 +67.7% +51.7% 53% 53% +1.0%
≤90d 25 +57.8% +42.8% 52% 52% +16.8%
all 25 +57.8% +42.8% 52% 52% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.8% 52% +16.8%
10% +29.1% 52% +5.6%
15% +16.7% 52% -4.6%
20% +5.2% 48% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$135 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized+$318
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage42d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 68¢ $100 $157 +$57 (+57%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 100¢ $50 $102 +$52 (+103%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 46¢ 56¢ $55 $68 +$13 (+23%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 74¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 22¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $608 +$427 +70%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 2+ goals AND Erling Haaland: Jun 23 $103 +$753 +733%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$223 +435%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $67 −$65 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $254 −$250 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $133 −$130 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $835 −$827 -99%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $253 −$250 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $233 +$91 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $246 +$16 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $102 +$125 +122%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$213 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $101 +$87 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $21 +$79 +376%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $103 −$1 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $31 +$16 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $31 +$80 +262%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic May 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 46¢ $56 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $608 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $5 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 2+ goals AND Erling Haaland: BUY 12¢ $103 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Spr BUY 20¢ $31 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win o BUY 18¢ $31 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 18¢ $51 13d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes $15 22d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 32¢ $51 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 55¢ $203 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar $31 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 28¢ $102 27d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) BUY Jodar 66¢ $229 27d
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 62¢ $253 27d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) BUY Jodar 68¢ $606 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 24¢ $51 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 18¢ $10 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 30¢ $31 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Andrey Rublev 58¢ $255 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 65¢ $101 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 59¢ $101 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 39¢ $33 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Rafael Jodar 53¢ $227 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $203 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Rafael Jodar 23¢ $102 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.47 · official $404.49 (match) · 54 history records