Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec44…c92b sports 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$81,408 (-73%) realized −$82,282 · open +$874
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,447per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$6,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$31,182
sports 28% −$12,744
crypto 24% −$25,328
other 10% −$8,035
economics 7% −$3,863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 19 -16.5% -24.4% 11% 11% -80.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 11% -80.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 11% -81.9%
15% -38.3% 11% -83.6%
20% -44.3% 11% -85.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$6,981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -63% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,481 vs −$5,705 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$6,874
Realized−$82,282
Unrealized+$874
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage136d
Avg bet$4,447
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $1,000 $2,020 +$1,020 (+102%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $974 −$26 (-3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $1,000 $900 −$100 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 20 $12,720 −$12,720 -100%
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Feb 19 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Feb 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Missouri State Bears Feb 19 $1,688 −$1,688 -100%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Lafayette Leopards vs. Holy Cross Crusaders Feb 19 $1,000 +$11,542 +1154%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Feb 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 18 $5,250 −$3,763 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 07 $18,573 −$18,336 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 05 $7,000 −$6,981 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Feb 04 $4,199 −$4,199 -100%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 04 $2,580 +$3,420 +133%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $32,911 −$32,202 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 31 $2,000 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $525 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $525 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 3h
Suns vs. Spurs BUY Suns $720 116d
Suns vs. Spurs BUY Suns 33¢ $10,000 116d
Suns vs. Spurs BUY Suns 32¢ $2,000 116d
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels BUY UNLV Runnin Rebels $1,100 117d
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys BUY Oklahoma State Cowboys $1,000 117d
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Missouri State Bears BUY Missouri State Bears $1,000 117d
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Missouri State Bears BUY Missouri State Bears 11¢ $688 117d
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys BUY Oklahoma State Cowboys $1,000 117d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1,000 117d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1,000 117d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1,000 117d
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1,000 117d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1,000 117d
Lafayette Leopards vs. Holy Cross Crusaders SELL Lafayette Leopards 100¢ $12,542 117d
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide BUY Arkansas Razorbacks $1,000 117d
Lafayette Leopards vs. Holy Cross Crusaders BUY Lafayette Leopards $1,000 117d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes $1,000 117d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes $7,000 117d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,000 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $500 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4,458 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2,552 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $445 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5,156 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,873.50 · official $6,873.50 (match) · 219 history records