Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec47…0c22 other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$41
other 16% +$45
world 15% −$9
weather 11% −$13
sports 7% −$10
crypto 4% −$32
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 19% -17.7%
≤30d 36 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 19% -17.7%
≤90d 36 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 19% -17.7%
all 36 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 19% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 19% -17.7%
10% -29.0% 19% -25.5%
15% -35.8% 14% -32.7%
20% -42.1% 8% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions32
Markets (closed)36 / 68
History coverage27d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 45¢ 68¢ $136 $206 +$71 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 88¢ 90¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 50¢ 76¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+51%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 95¢ $7 $11 +$3 (+44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 20¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+86%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 80¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+73%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 69¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+81%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$11 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$5 +29%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$1 +48%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -10%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-14 House seat? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $35 −$12 -33%
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad Jun 12 $5 −$2 -48%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 12 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary elec Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary Jun 12 $30 −$2 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 11m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 11m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 12m
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 15m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 89¢ $4 43m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $6 44m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $5 45m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $3 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $3 57m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 31¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 31¢ $2 2h
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.73 · official $426.73 (match) · 263 history records