Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec4a…2cbc politics 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$9
other 18% −$3
sports 11% $0
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 53 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 53 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage86d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $52 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $58 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $123 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $50 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $51 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 8d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $51 8d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $51 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $51 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 10d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $52 10d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $52 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $52 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $52 15d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.28 · official $50.28 (match) · 313 history records