Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EC
0xec4b…e504
crypto · 59 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$202 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$206 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$122
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage13d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 8 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$113
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 54¢ 56¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 7¢ 12¢ $9 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$5 +60%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$25 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +121%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $127 +$53 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $13 +$12 +88%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $214 −$126 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% −$178
other 34% +$27
crypto 19% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 54¢ $30 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 65¢ $12 2h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $8 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $26 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $22 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $43 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% -24.8%
≤30d 51 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 51% -29.3%
≤90d 51 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 51% -29.3%
all 51 -8.7% -17.4% 51% 51% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 51% -29.3%
10% -25.3% 51% -36.1%
15% -32.5% 49% -42.3%
20% -39.1% 37% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.12 · official $122.18 (match) · 139 history records