Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EC 0xec4d…0707 crypto 334 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,293 (-14%) realized −$2,294 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%163W / 625L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day170.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$220
other 1% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 510 -88.6% -89.7% 4% 2% -56.4%
≤30d 788 -62.1% -65.7% 21% 13% -37.2%
≤90d 788 -62.1% -65.7% 21% 13% -37.2%
all 788 -62.1% -65.7% 21% 13% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.7% 13% -37.2%
10% ← realistic here -69.0% 12% -43.2%
15% -72.0% 4% -48.7%
20% -74.7% 3% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$2,294
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses163 / 625
Open positions1
Markets (closed)788 / 334
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day170.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 83¢ 84¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $0 +$7 +3046%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 −$12 -27119%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $134 −$134 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -125%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $244 −$488 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $43 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $24 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $71 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $38 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $34 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $49 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.11 · official $54.37 · 3500 history records