Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EC 0xec4d…b408 politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$18
politics 42% −$19
sports 6% +$30
crypto 4% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 116 +1.2% -8.5% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 131 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$1 · ×14.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage118d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $187 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $204 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $426 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $245 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $233 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $225 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $405 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $425 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $397 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 07 $442 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $284 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $666 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $42 2h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 44h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 14d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 16d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 22d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $23 22d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $23 22d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.96 · official $77.96 (match) · 406 history records