Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec4e…3b2b sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+6%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$26
sports 41% +$12
other 17% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 38% -4.4%
≤30d 16 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 38% -4.4%
≤90d 16 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 38% -4.4%
all 16 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 38% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 38% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 38% -13.5%
15% -34.3% 25% -21.9%
20% -40.7% 25% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$6 -68%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$6 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -75%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$6 -48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$11 -46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 −$9 -71%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -5%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$5 +29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $32 +$11 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $35 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 22h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $43 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records