Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec54…9088 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$33
crypto 13% −$28
sports 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +5.0% -5.0% 25% 25% -12.9%
≤90d 8 +5.0% -5.0% 25% 25% -12.9%
all 8 +5.0% -5.0% 25% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 25% -12.9%
10% -14.1% 25% -21.2%
15% -22.4% 25% -28.8%
20% -30.0% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage28d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $150 $172 +$23 (+15%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$15 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.54 · official $174.54 (match) · 22 history records