Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec54…e8c1 sports 410 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (160 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141,637 (-26%) realized −$141,637 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%190W / 540L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,317per market
Trades / day160.3pace
Fees−$7,176est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$24,170
other 17% +$2,954
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (160 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 452 -82.0% -83.7% 8% 8% -69.4%
≤30d 730 -45.1% -50.4% 26% 23% -43.9%
≤90d 730 -45.1% -50.4% 26% 23% -43.9%
all 730 -45.1% -50.4% 26% 23% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.4% 23% -43.9%
10% -55.1% 22% -49.3%
15% ← realistic here -59.5% 20% -54.2%
20% -63.4% 19% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,364) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,063 vs −$915 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$141,637
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses190 / 540
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$7,176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)730 / 410
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$1,317
Trades / day160.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 730 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) Team Falcons 27¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5) Jun 20 $627 −$627 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $2,668 −$2,668 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Jun 20 $251 −$251 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $233 −$233 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $92 −$81 -89%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $472 −$472 -100%
Game Handicap: GMB (-2.5) vs EKO Esports (+2.5) Jun 20 $1,104 −$1,104 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 20 $850 −$850 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $2,350 −$2,350 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 20 $1,932 −$1,932 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $320 −$320 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 20 $814 −$814 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 20 $559 −$559 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 20 $559 −$559 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 20 $790 −$790 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 20 $895 −$895 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $502 +$355 +71%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $654 −$278 -42%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Citadel Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $721 −$721 -100%
LoL: Uwinks vs RAYN Clocks - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $1,854 −$1,854 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BoostGate Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $450 −$450 -100%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 20 $619 −$619 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 20 $733 −$733 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 20 $1,222 −$1,222 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $875 −$875 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $789 −$789 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 20 $231 −$231 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Jun 20 $483 −$483 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5) Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,210 −$1,210 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $309 −$309 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,894 −$1,894 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Jun 20 $1,021 −$1,078 -106%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs BNK FearX Youth (+1.5) Jun 20 $800 −$800 -100%
LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 20 $435 −$435 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,886 −$1,886 -100%
1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 20 $318 −$318 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Citadel Gaming vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers L Jun 20 $656 −$656 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $213 −$213 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $3 2m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 83¢ $3,619 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $3,680 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 51¢ $3,060 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $1,177 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $688 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,248 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $54 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $8 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $403 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $60 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $22 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $95 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $57 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,449 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $339 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $673 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $305 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $446 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2,788 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $310 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $67 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.68 · official $2.68 (match) · 3500 history records