Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EC 0xec54…c7b2 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,531 (-10%) realized −$11,627 · open +$96
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%123W / 118L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$986est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$351
14 days−$486
30 days−$2,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$10,280
other 11% −$1,926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 40% -18.8%
≤30d 23 -43.2% -48.6% 30% 26% -47.6%
≤90d 186 -16.8% -24.8% 41% 39% -34.2%
all 241 +1.2% -8.5% 51% 49% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 49% -19.5%
10% -17.2% 48% -27.2%
15% -25.2% 45% -34.3%
20% -32.6% 42% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$557) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$457 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized−$11,627
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses123 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$986
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage126d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 75¢ 100¢ $290 $386 +$96 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $366 −$365 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $30 +$48 +156%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $185 −$118 -64%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Gauff/Pegula vs Potapova/Shnaider Jun 16 $287 +$120 +42%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) Jun 15 $491 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $243 +$266 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $261 −$261 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $314 +$186 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $280 +$294 +105%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $172 −$172 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $219 +$212 +97%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 21 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $325 −$325 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 21 $203 −$203 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $473 −$473 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? May 21 $514 −$514 -100%
Joventut vs. Unicaja May 16 $254 +$148 +58%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $507 −$507 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 13 $683 −$683 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $6 +$4 +65%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) May 12 $473 −$473 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 11 $827 −$827 -100%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+1.5) May 11 $255 +$218 +86%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? May 10 $66 +$55 +84%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? May 10 $495 +$378 +76%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs GLYPH (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gr May 05 $271 −$271 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $659 −$659 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group St May 05 $262 −$71 -27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $20 +$3 +17%
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5) May 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A May 05 $222 −$222 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 04 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 04 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 04 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 04 $9 +$8 +99%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? May 04 $1 +$1 +122%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $0 $0 +101%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 03 $91 +$202 +223%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 03 $429 −$429 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 03 $1,203 +$816 +68%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 03 $409 +$318 +78%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $176 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $76 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $22 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $79 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $63 9h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 39¢ $6 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 39¢ $16 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 39¢ $8 19h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 12¢ $0 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 13¢ $67 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $34 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $12 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $56 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $83 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 52¢ $18 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 52¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 52¢ $29 25h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Gauff/Pegula vs Potapova/Shnaider BUY Gauff/Pegula 70¢ $287 28h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 32¢ $18 28h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 32¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.80 · official $385.80 (match) · 1114 history records